Nigeria’s power sector has come under intense scrutiny as officials and industry experts warn that electricity generation has remained largely stagnant for decades, undermining economic growth and diminishing quality of life for millions of Nigerians. Current generation capacity continues to hover around 5,000 megawatts (MW) despite reforms and policy interventions — a figure that puts significant strain on households, businesses, and public services.

Rt. Hon. Ekperikpe Ekpo, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), highlighted challenges in the national energy mix at the ongoing 9th Nigeria International Energy Summit (NIES 2026) in Abuja. Ekpo pointed out that while Nigeria possesses abundant gas reserves — among the largest globally — converting these resources into reliable electricity output has been slow and inconsistent. Gas currently accounts for more than 70 % of on-grid electricity generation, yet systemic bottlenecks continue to frustrate efforts to increase actual supply delivered to homes and industries.

“We have over 210 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves,” Ekpo told summit delegates, “but the real measure of success lies in translating those resources into real megawatts delivered to Nigerians.”

Decades-Long Stagnation

Despite various reforms and infrastructure investments over the years, actual power generation remains stuck near 5,000 MW — only marginally higher than figures recorded more than two decades ago. Regulators such as the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) have publicly lamented that Nigeria’s generation has climbed only slightly above 4,500 MW recorded under the Olusegun Obasanjo administration, underscoring a troubling lack of long-term progress.

The persistent stagnation has sparked criticism from labour unions and consumer groups. The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) described government claims about improved electricity access as “outrageous,” noting that many Nigerians still confront unreliable supply, frequent outages, and insufficient generation relative to population size. The union argued that Nigeria should be generating significantly more — potentially upwards of 150,000 MW — to meet basic needs and global standards.

Underlying Challenges

Experts point to several root causes behind the sector’s stagnation:

• Gas-to-power linkages remain weak, with insufficient long-term commercial supply agreements discouraging investment from gas producers and power generation companies.
• Infrastructure constraints and stranded capacity limit the ability of existing plants to operate at full potential, leading to millions of unused megawatts that could otherwise supply the national grid.
• Regulatory and pricing issues, including domestic gas pricing and liquidity challenges within the power value chain, have dampened investment and operational efficiency.

These structural weaknesses mean that, although Nigeria has the theoretical ability to produce more electricity, it consistently fails to translate installed capacity into sustained, dependable energy for consumers.

Government Response and Plans

In response, the federal government has emphasised strategies to strengthen the gas-to-power value chain, which it sees as critical to expanding electricity supply. Initiatives presented at the energy summit included plans for long-term gas supply agreements, expanded gas pipeline infrastructure, and establishment of a National Gas Infrastructure Command Centre to better coordinate and protect critical assets.

Officials argue that recent efforts to resolve legacy debt in the gas-to-power segment have begun to restore investor confidence, potentially unlocking fresh supply for power plants and easing longstanding bottlenecks.

Nonetheless, analysts caution that resolving Nigeria’s power sector challenges will require not only infrastructure investment but also sustained commitment to policy reform, regulatory clarity, and improved commercial arrangements across the energy value chain.