Nigerian crude oil is expected to rise to around $80 per barrel as the ongoing military actions involving the United States Israel and Iran stoke fears of supply disruptions in global energy markets, analysts and industry watchers say.

Market data show that Nigerian Bonny Light crude was trading near $73 per barrel on Saturday February 28, 2026, with traders and analysts estimating further upward movement if the conflict continues to affect regional oil flows. The expectation of $80 per barrel reflects concerns about disruptions to supplies that pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for more than one-fifth of the world’s crude exports, should hostilities spread.

Energy experts say that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East tend to trigger a “risk premium” in oil prices, where fears of supply interruption push prices up even when physical disruptions have not yet occurred. Brent crude — the global benchmark — has already climbed significantly amid fears of widening conflict, and analysts note that prolonged instability could keep price pressures elevates.

If the conflict worsens and results in actual supply disruptions or attacks on infrastructure in the region, some market forecasts suggest prices could rise even higher than $80 per barrel, adding inflationary pressure to global economies dependent on oil imports.

Nigeria, as Africa’s largest oil exporter, stands to benefit from higher crude prices through increased revenue. However, analysts warn that higher global oil prices can also contribute to increased costs for petroleum products domestically, which could have knock-on effects on inflation and fuel prices for consumers.