Nigeria has recorded a major fiscal shift as tax and non-oil revenue streams now surpass oil in driving government income. From 2010 to 2024, the country earned an estimated N161.1 trillion, almost evenly split between oil-related earnings (N80.6 trillion) and non-oil sources (N80.57 trillion), according to a report by Quartus Economics.

The report, titled “Nigeria Unshackled: Inside the Steady Rise of a Fiscal State,” highlights how decades of economic shocks, policy reforms, and structural adjustments following the 2014 global oil price crash have propelled the country toward a more diversified revenue base. Between 2023 and 2025 alone, Nigeria collected an estimated N62.3 trillion from taxes, with the non-oil sector accounting for the bulk of this income.

Before the oil crash, petroleum made up roughly three-quarters of public revenue, leaving finances vulnerable to global price swings. Post-crisis reforms have expanded tax collection mechanisms, boosting non-oil contributions from 25% of total revenue in 2010 to nearly 75% by 2024. Non-oil taxes now form about 76% of federally collected taxes.

Despite this progress, the report warns that the legacy of the 2014 crisis still weighs heavily on Nigeria’s economy. The debt-to-GDP ratio has more than tripled in the past decade, and debt service costs now consume nearly 40% of federal revenue, up from under 7% in 2012. Analysts stress that while revenue diversification signals stability, managing debt remains critical to sustaining fiscal health.

Overall, Nigeria’s shift toward a resilient, tax-driven revenue model marks a significant departure from oil dependency, signaling both growth potential and the continuing need for careful fiscal management.