Economist Bismarck Rewane has raised concerns that rising global crude oil prices could significantly boost illegal earnings from oil theft in Nigeria, potentially reaching $16 million per day.

Speaking at the Lagos Business School Breakfast Session, Rewane projected that an increase in crude prices from $64 to $110 per barrel could drive a 136% surge in illicit oil revenues—from $3 million daily in January to $16 million by April 2026.

He explained that higher oil prices make illegal bunkering more profitable, reducing the incentive for militants to accept government security contracts. According to him, what was once a viable alternative protecting pipelines for about $50 million monthly may no longer be attractive.

Rewane further warned that increased profitability in illegal oil trade would fuel pipeline vandalism, worsen insecurity in the Niger Delta, and lead to greater production losses for the country.

Beyond oil theft, he highlighted broader economic consequences, noting that rising energy and input costs are already squeezing manufacturers, cutting profits, and slowing economic growth, even as government revenues improve.