Global airlines are set to incur an additional $100 billion in jet fuel costs this year, with passengers expected to shoulder part of the burden through higher airfares, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

The airline industry body said jet fuel prices are projected to rise by about 70% in 2026, a surge largely linked to supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions affecting oil flows, particularly after instability around the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaking at an industry summit in Rio de Janeiro, IATA Director General Willie Walsh warned that the impact on the aviation sector would be severe, with global airline profits expected to drop sharply to around $23 billion—roughly half of previous forecasts.

He noted that while the industry remains profitable overall, many airlines are operating on extremely thin margins, and the fuel shock could threaten the survival of weaker carriers.

Walsh said higher oil prices would inevitably translate into higher ticket prices, adding that both passengers and cargo operators would face increased costs. He also noted uncertainty over how long consumers would tolerate rising fares amid global economic pressure.

British Airways CEO Sean Doyle echoed the concern, saying long-haul and premium passengers are most likely to absorb the bulk of fare increases, while budget short-haul routes may see slower adjustments.

IATA also used the opportunity to highlight structural cost challenges in Nigeria’s aviation sector, describing the country as one of the most expensive markets in the world for airline operations.

According to regional aviation officials, high airport charges, multiple taxes, fuel costs, and insurance expenses continue to strain Nigerian carriers, limiting competitiveness and profitability despite ongoing reform efforts by the federal government.

Industry stakeholders have repeatedly called for reductions in aviation taxes across West Africa, arguing that such measures could boost passenger traffic, lower fares, and improve the financial health of airlines operating in the region.

The latest warning adds to growing concerns that rising global fuel prices could reshape the aviation industry in the months ahead, forcing airlines to adjust pricing strategies and operational models in response to sustained cost pressures.